Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 16

   Mesoscale Discussion 0016
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0640 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas...Louisiana...and
   southern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 100040Z - 100245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm intensity is expected this
   evening and tonight over portions of the Sabine and lower MS
   Valleys. A mix of supercells and linear segments will likely support
   a risk for damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes. One or more
   watches are likely in the next hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...As of 0130 UTC, regional radar and mesoanalysis showed
   scattered convection ongoing within a very moist and broad warm
   sector from east TX into LA and across southern MS. Over the last 2
   hours, convection within this region has slowly intensified as a
   positive-tilt upper trough over the southern Plains has moved
   eastward. Continued ascent and convective development within the
   warm sector appears likely this evening given robust moisture and
   buoyancy (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg LIX/LCH RAOBs) with little to no
   inhibition remaining.

   Overall forcing is still somewhat nebulous and driven primarily by
   low-level warm advection. This suggests storm evolution is likely to
   be slow until the upper trough moves closer. Initial storm evolution
   is expected along low-level confluence structures and the cold front
   over eastern TX. Deep-layer shear (50-60 kt) oriented largely
   parallel to these features is favorable for storm organization, but
   with a mixed convective mode of supercells and linear segments. This
   will favor a risk for damaging gusts given strong mid and low-level
   flow.

   While initially somewhat weaker, low-level flow/shear should
   increase this evening as large-scale ascent from the approaching
   upper trough and nocturnal low-level jet intensify across LA and MS.
   Peak SRH (0-500m) of 100-150 m2/s2 will support low-level rotation
   and the potential for a couple tornadoes as well. This appears
   especially likely along the diffuse warm front where weak pressure
   falls are occurring and low-level winds are backed.

   Observational trends and short-term model guidance suggest
   convection will gradually increase in coverage and intensity this
   evening. As storms mature a severe threat should evolve and
   transition northeastward tonight. Given the potential for damaging
   gusts and a couple tornadoes, one or more watches is likely needed
   in the next hour or two.

   ..Lyons/Gleason.. 01/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   30409384 30789411 31389416 31939382 32509255 32269018
               32078938 31848874 31378844 31028868 30509099 30479125
               30369211 30369339 30409384 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN