Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 8

   Mesoscale Discussion 0008
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0908 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

   Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma into adjacent portions of
   Missouri and Arkansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...

   Valid 081508Z - 081715Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind gusts and brief tornadoes will
   continue into the late morning hours for northeast Oklahoma and
   adjacent portions of Missouri and Arkansas.

   DISCUSSION...VWP observations from KINX in northeast OK depict a
   steady increase in low-level flow up to 50-60 knots within the 0-2
   km AGL layer over the past 90 minutes. This is enlarging low-level
   hodographs with 0-1 km SRH increasing upwards of 400 m2/s2
   immediately preceding developing warm-advection-driven convection
   and the more established squall line coming out of central OK.
   Similarly, the KTLX VWP in central OK is sampling the passage of a
   75-80 knot mid-level jet that is supporting not only intense
   deep-layer wind shear but also strong ascent over northeast OK.
   These strong kinematics should compensate for an otherwise meager
   thermodynamic environment (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) and will continue to
   support the potential for brief tornadoes as well as severe wind
   gusts. 

   In the short term, the greatest severe wind/tornado threat will
   likely be associated with the more organized portion of the squall
   line (currently in Osage/Washington counties, OK) as it moves
   east/northeast over the next couple of hours. The loosely organized
   convection to the southeast of the Tulsa metro will likely undergo
   further organization with an increasing wind/tornado threat within
   the next couple of hours as a convective band becomes established.

   ..Moore.. 01/08/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35539430 35119601 35229615 35369621 36699629 36849631
               36989631 37049618 37229484 37149432 36939407 36379393
               35759410 35539430 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN