Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2263

   Mesoscale Discussion 2263
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0436 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

   Areas affected...eastern MS...western/northern AL...southern Middle
   TN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 182236Z - 190000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing potential for a tornadic supercell or two
   appears to be underway across eastern Mississippi. This should
   spread into parts of western to northern Alabama through
   mid-evening. A tornado watch is being considered.

   DISCUSSION...A broken swath of semi-discrete convection has
   increased from northeast to central MS along a pre-frontal
   confluence axis. Surface temperatures have reached the low 60s north
   to upper 60s south ahead of this axis, with 70s farther south and
   behind this convection. This has yielded a plume of modest MLCAPE
   from 500-1000 J/kg that should shift across western AL this evening.
   Low-level to deep-layer shear is conducive to a few supercells
   developing and being maintained within this regime. A tornadic
   supercell or two is possible before convection probably weakens
   later in the evening as instability wanes deeper into AL.

   ..Grams/Smith.. 12/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   34778620 33388682 32918729 32528790 32478836 32488907
               32818930 34458838 34988812 35378733 35358647 34778620 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN