Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2223

   Mesoscale Discussion 2223
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0107 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

   Areas affected...portions of east-central into southeast Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 638...

   Valid 241907Z - 242030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 638 continues.

   SUMMARY...A few tornadoes remain possible with ongoing storms across
   east-central into southeastern Texas.

   DISCUSSION...Supercell structures have percolated in intensity along
   a confluence band within the free warm sector, ahead of a surface
   cold front. Ahead of the storms, surface temperatures have warmed
   well into the 70s F (near 80 F in the Houston area), with dewpoints
   in the upper 60s to low 70s F noted. However, regional VADs have
   shown relatively short hodographs with modest curvature, which may
   be limiting tornado potential up to this point. Nonetheless, an
   uptick in tornado development may occur over the next couple of
   hours. A particular region of concern would be over the northern
   Houston metropolitan area, where regional/terminal radar data shows
   the intensification of a supercell amid a moderately unstable
   airmass, with a 30+ kt rotational velocity noted with the 1903Z 0.5
   degree KHGX velocity scan.

   ..Squitieri.. 11/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   29659616 29759624 29929622 30079617 30459610 31049608
               31299616 31449620 31589622 31719622 31779620 31849612
               32029562 32309498 32279492 32339432 32209370 31949336
               31459333 30909363 30229396 29929437 29719496 29629548
               29609576 29659616 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN