Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2169

   Mesoscale Discussion 2169
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0255 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

   Areas affected...southwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628...

   Valid 241955Z - 242230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A possible supercell with large hail potential appears
   evident over parts of southwest Texas over the next several hours.

   DISCUSSION...Substantial thunderstorm activity currently extends
   from Jeff Davis county east/northeastward into the San Angelo area,
   with widespread rain and storms northward into much of northwest
   Texas. The strongest activity remains along the southern periphery
   of this activity where the storms have access to the warmer air
   mass. Surface observations from the Big Bend areas into west-central
   Texas show temperatures have risen into the 80s F while dewpoints
   remain in the low 60s F. Meanwhile, temperatures aloft continue to
   cool.

   Mixed-mode severe storms are currently ongoing in this corridor,
   which is also beneath the stronger upper-level jet. It is possible
   toward the peak heating hours that a cell or two could produce hail
   over 2.00" diameter, and/or move in more of an eastward direction as
   the warmer air mass/SBCAPE aids rightward propagation and supercell
   mode.

   ..Jewell.. 10/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30710373 31310250 31640149 31840026 31350001 30610023
               29890079 29760352 30210414 30710373 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN