Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2138

   Mesoscale Discussion 2138
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0542 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061042Z - 061215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few rotating showers/thunderstorms may persist for a few
   more hours.

   DISCUSSION...Moderate instability has pushed inland across southeast
   Louisiana and vicinity with tropical mid 70s dewpoints present. In
   addition, the low-level jet has strengthened to around 35 knots per
   KHDC VWP. This has resulted in a few showers and occasional
   thunderstorm development near the frontal zone along the Gulf Coast.
   RAP forecast soundings show very weak deep layer/effective shear,
   but some supercell characteristics have been observed on radar over
   the past hour with 2 observed TDSs. Therefore, the stronger shear
   between the LCL/EL (35 knots) must be sufficient for some updraft
   rotation. Transient rotating updrafts and clockwise turning winds in
   the lowest km have been apparently sufficient for a few brief
   tornadoes. In addition, the low-level jet is significantly stronger
   than forecast by most guidance. This low-level jet has weakened
   slightly over the past hour on the KHDC VWP and should continue to
   slowly weaken through the morning. Given the already borderline
   environment these showers/storms have developed within, expect this
   modest reduction in the low-level jet to bring an end to the threat
   by daybreak.

   ..Bentley/Mosier.. 10/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   29669092 30359099 30789079 31179030 31038983 30528974
               30038971 29558979 29238995 29179034 29239067 29309078
               29669092 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH