000 WTPZ43 KNHC 142033 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 200 PM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 A large, cold convective burst formed over the center of Mario around 13Z this morning and subsequently expanded, and the burst has persisted since that time. A 1657 UTC ASCAT-B pass showed several 34-38 kt vectors within 30 miles of Mario's center. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and 2.0/30 kt from SAB, while recent UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates are in the 40-45 kt range. Winds at Socorro Island, located less than 30 n mi west-southwest of the center, are up to 20 kt gusting to 29 kt, with a 1006 mb pressure. The initial intensity is increased to 40 kt for this advisory. The aforementioned ASCAT pass and surface observations from Socorro Island have been helpful at estimating the initial position of Mario, which is slightly to the east of the previous NHC forecast. The current motion of the cyclone is estimated to be slowly toward the west-northwest at 300/6 kt. This general motion should continue for the next few days as Mario is primarily steered by deep-layer ridging centered over Mexico. The GFS and Google DeepMind models are on the right, or north side of the guidance envelope, whereas the ECMWF and HCCA lie on the left or southern side of the guidance. The latest NHC forecast is adjusted slightly to the right, or east, of the previous official forecast, fairly close to a blend of the latest HCCA and TVCE models. Mario will continue to be in a favorable environment for strengthening for another 24-30 hours, with low shear under 10 kt, warm sea-surface temperatures, and plenty of mid-level moisture. By hour 30, the sea-surface temperatures will be below 27C and then below 26C by hour 36. Around the same time, southwesterly shear will begin increasing while the mid-level moisture and instability plummet. These conditions favor the commencement of weakening on Monday night. All model guidance, including the latest hi-res hurricane models, do not show more than about 10 kt of additional strengthening. In fact, the latest intensity forecast is at the high end of the model guidance envelope through 24 h. Given the favorable environment for the next 24 h, a higher peak intensity in the 55-60 kt range should not be ruled out. By 36 h, the NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, which is closer to the middle of the guidance envelope. The cyclone should become a remnant low in 48-60 h and dissipate just beyond 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 18.9N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 19.6N 111.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 20.4N 113.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 21.5N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 22.8N 117.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 24.0N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z 24.9N 121.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
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