Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2036

   Mesoscale Discussion 2036
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0501 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025

   Areas affected...the Upper OH Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 052201Z - 060000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
   evening to the northeast of recently issued WW 606, most probable
   across western to northern West Virginia.

   DISCUSSION...Initially small discrete cells have been slow to
   develop in the Upper OH Valley region of southeast OH and western
   WV, where MLCAPE is progressively weaker with northeast extent from
   the TN Valley. But with stronger southwesterly to west-southwesterly
   deep-layer shear, there is potential for a few of these cells to
   acquire mid-level rotation and perhaps grow upscale into a small
   cluster. The most probable corridor for this to occur is across
   western to northern WV where 80s surface temperatures are common.
   Cooler temperatures and dew points into PA should spatially confine
   severe potential from far southwest PA southwestward.

   ..Grams/Mosier.. 09/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   40357963 39677939 38088120 37838208 37978240 38168280
               38408281 38968253 39738139 40378058 40357963 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN