000 WTPZ41 KNHC 312033 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 Kiko has changed little in organization during the past few hours, with a broad curved convective band wrapping around the western side of the cyclone. Recent ASCAT overpasses did not show tropical-storm force winds. However, there may be sampling issues at work since the central core of Kiko is small. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 35-45 kt range, and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt in deference to the scatterometer data. The scatterometer data and conventional imagery suggest the circulation center is elongated east-west with multiple cloud swirls present. The initial motion remains 270/8 kt. Kiko is on the south side of a deep-layer ridge that covers the tropical Pacific between 120W-155W, and this feature is expected to persist for the next several days. This should cause Kiko to move westward or just south of westward through the forecast period. While the track guidance generally agrees on the direction of motion, there is a considerable spread in forward speed with the faster UKMET/ECMWF being several hundred miles west of the slower GFS by 120 h. The new forecast track splits this speed difference, and it lies just north of the consensus models. The new forecast is a bit south of and slower than the previous forecast. Kiko is expected to encounter generally light vertical shear while it moves over sea surface temperatures that are around 27C. After 72 h, the cyclone is likely to move into a drier air mass that could inhibit strengthening despite the other favorable conditions. Based on this, the intensity forecast shows 72 h of strengthening followed by little change in strength at 96 and 120 h. There are two uncertainties in this forecast. First, the rapid intensification indices of the SHIPS model are notably above their climatological norms, and that combined with Kiko's small core suggests that a period of rapid intensification could occur during the next 72 h. Second, as mentioned earlier any deviation of the track slightly to the right of the forecast path could place the system over cooler waters that would slow or stop strengthening. The new intensity forecast is a little stronger than the previous forecast, and it lies near the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 14.4N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 14.3N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 14.2N 126.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 14.1N 130.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 14.0N 131.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 14.0N 133.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 14.0N 137.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 14.1N 141.3W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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