879 WTPA43 PHFO 120844 TCDCP3 Hurricane Henriette Discussion Number 33 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 11 2025 Henriette's inner core has deteriorated during the past several hours. Microwave overpasses from the Space Operations Command (SpOC) WSF-M1 and an ISS TEMPEST-D CubeSat imager revealed a collapsed, partial eyewall in the eastern half of the cyclone and fragmented curved bands in the southwest and northeast quadrants. Subjective intensity estimates from PGTW (17th OWS), PHFO, and SAB, a 0710 UTC SATCON analysis of 64 kt and a blend of the UW-CIMSS objective intensity techniques yield a lowered initial intensity of 65 kt. Henriette is moving beneath a region of upper-level convergence between an upper-tropospheric low to the northwest of the cyclone and an upper-level anticyclone to the northeast. This inhibiting dynamic contribution, along with increasing northerly shear and progressively cooler oceanic surface temperatures, should cause Henriette to weaken quickly through the remainder of the period. The majority of the deterministic models predict that Henriette should degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by early Thursday and open up into a trough over the central north Pacific by the weekend. Accordingly, quick weakening is indicated in the NHC forecast and resembles the previous one, and is very close to the LGEM and just above the HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 315/14 kt. Henriette should continue moving in this general heading during the next couple of days in the mid-level steering flow provided by a subtropical ridge to Henriette's northeast and a mid- to upper-level low located northwest of the cyclone. Afterward, a weakened, vertically shallow Henriette should turn toward the north-northwest then to the north while rounding the western periphery of a low- to mid-level high to the east. The new track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory and lies close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 31.7N 160.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 33.1N 161.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 35.0N 164.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 37.0N 166.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 39.2N 169.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 14/1800Z 41.3N 169.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z 43.2N 169.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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