Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 518

   Mesoscale Discussion 0518
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0454 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

   Areas affected...portions of far northeast Missouri into central
   Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 222154Z - 222330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind threat may accompany the
   stronger storms. A WW issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...A baroclinic boundary/weak surface front continues to
   slowly sag southward, serving as a local source of lift for
   deep-moist convection. One multicellular cluster has already
   developed along the boundary in central IL and produced an instance
   of 1 inch diameter hail. Through the afternoon a couple more storms
   could develop. If they do, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35 kts of
   effective bulk shear may support an instance of marginally severe
   hail/wind. The severe threat should remain isolated, so a WW
   issuance is not anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39419221 39799248 40359229 40839119 41089038 41008919
               40568875 40068919 39758991 39599079 39479176 39419221 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN