Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 435

   Mesoscale Discussion 0435
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1218 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

   Areas affected...pats of the Carolinas and far southern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 071718Z - 071915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A band of scattered thunderstorms may pose a damaging wind
   risk this afternoon. A brief tornado will also be possible. A WW is
   being considered.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1715 UTC regional visible and radar imagery show
   some convective development taking place near a weak frontal low and
   along a cold front across portions of the western Carolinas and far
   southern VA. Filtered diurnal heating is raising surface
   temperatures to near 80 east of fairly expansive cloud cover near
   the front. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F are
   contributing to weak buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE from SPC
   mesoanalysis) despite weak mid-level lapse rates less than 7 C/km.
   As heating and lift from the front/upper trough continues, scattered
   thunderstorms may gradually intensify this afternoon. Current obs
   show low-level flow is veering, but remains somewhat strong around
   15-20 kt. With moderately strong deep-layer shear in place, some
   storm organization into bands or clusters is possible. Stronger
   low-level flow may also support transient updraft rotation,
   especially near the east-west warm front where winds are more backed
   across parts of northern NC and southern VA.

   As storms gradually develop through this afternoon, a few more
   robust clusters or line segments may emerge. This would support some
   potential for damaging gusts given the strong background flow. The
   tornado risk is much more uncertain, but the strong deep-layer shear
   and some enhanced low-level shear near the warm front could support
   a brief tornado with the stronger rotating storms. Confidence in the
   coverage of severe storms is low, owing the relatively limited CAPE
   and poor lapse rate profiles. Still, an isolated risk may emerge
   this afternoon. Conditions are being monitored for a possible
   weather watch.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 04/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   33648162 35847952 36747758 36687618 36387573 35507571
               34567721 34217822 33857904 33308020 33648162 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH