Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2260

   Mesoscale Discussion 2260
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1043 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

   Areas affected...portions of the central Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111643Z - 111815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado cannot be
   ruled out this afternoon. A WW issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A surface cold front is rapidly approaching the FL
   Peninsula, preceded by a loosely organized QLCS. These storms are
   approaching a gradually destabilizing airmass, where surface
   temperatures are exceeding 80 F amid 70 F dewpoints (supporting 1500
   J/kg MLCAPE). While deep-layer shear and some low-level shear also
   precedes the line, deep-layer ascent will continue to drift away
   from FL, so shear should gradually weaken through the day. However,
   a brief window of opportunity may exist for the buoyancy/shear
   parameter space to briefly coincide to support a couple of damaging
   gusts or a tornado with the stronger updrafts. Nonetheless, the
   severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is unlikely.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/11/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   27538263 29258190 29798153 29758127 29348096 28538062
               27948052 27618066 26808114 26468147 26328187 26638220
               27538263