Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2257

   Mesoscale Discussion 2257
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0545 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast Alabama and parts of the Florida
   Panhandle into southern Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 102345Z - 110145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Weak, shallow convection is expected to overspread
   southeast Alabama into southern Georgia through the late evening
   hours. This activity may pose a low-end tornado threat, but watch
   issuance is currently not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past hour or so, shallow convection has been
   developing across southeast AL and the FL Panhandle along two
   low-level confluence axes ahead of the primary precipitation shield
   and attendant surface cold front. Some of the deeper (albeit still
   shallow, 20-25 kft echo tops) convection has exhibited signs of
   low-level rotation over the past 30 minutes. Despite very modest
   buoyancy (around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE), 150-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH
   sampled by regional VPWs should support some degree of low-level
   storm organization, including the potential for modest mesocyclones
   and perhaps a brief tornado.  

   The limited thermodynamic environment will modulate the overall
   severe threat, as evidenced by sparse lightning flashes attendant to
   this convection, which implies generally weak/shallow updrafts.
   Because of this, watch issuance is not anticipated. However,
   additional rotating shallow convection is possible through the late
   evening hours as this activity spreads east/northeast into southern
   GA in tandem with an adequately warm/moist low-level air mass.

   ..Moore/Gleason.. 12/10/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30948643 31218636 31608593 32308489 32788391 32808346
               32768310 32588281 32358267 31888255 31378260 31068281
               30928301 30868332 30658532 30668570 30728605 30808626
               30948643