Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2228

   Mesoscale Discussion 2228
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1136 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

   Areas affected...portions of western Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 709...

   Valid 180536Z - 180730Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 709
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong storms continue in a frontal band crossing western
   Texas, where damaging winds and marginal hail are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a broken band of locally
   vigorous convection occurring ahead of a cold front
   organizing/moving eastward across far West Texas at this time.  Very
   strong flow aloft -- including winds in excess of 50 kt just 1km AGL
   -- continues to support local storm organization, including bowing
   segments at least transiently organizing within the convective band.

   At this time, weak instability remains a limiting factor, in terms
   of more robust severe risk.  With that said, a surface warm front
   continues shifting rapidly northward/northwestward across central
   Texas, at the leading edge of a high theta-e (low 70s dewpoints)
   airmass.  As storms advance slowly eastward, and higher theta-e air
   continues advecting northwestward, an eventual uptick in risk is
   expected.

   ..Goss.. 11/18/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30500320 32180266 34000133 33730002 33019896 31559970
               30510143 30500320