Tropical Depression Sara Forecast Discussion

559 
WTNT44 KNHC 172035
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Sara Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Since making landfall, Sara appears to be gradually weakening as it
straddles the area between Mexico and Guatemala this afternoon.
Convective activity has remained somewhat intact near the center,
though the low-level cloud motions from the GOES-16 1 minute
mesoscale sector suggest the circulation definition is already
becoming more diffuse. The initial intensity remains 30 kt this
advisory after the system was downgraded to a depression earlier at
1800 UTC.

As expected Sara has sped up a bit today, with its initial motion
now estimated at 300/10 kt. A turn more northwestward is expected
tonight before the depression opens up into a trough at some point
tonight or tomorrow, in good agreement with the bulk of the
forecast aids. As previously discussed, the track aids do extend
further north than the current NHC forecast track into the Gulf of
Mexico, mainly because they track the remnant vorticity of the
system, even though it will no longer be a tropical cyclone.
However, the moisture plume associated with the remnants of Sara is
anticipated to contribute to enhanced rainfall along the U.S. Gulf
coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday, where the
Weather Prediction Center currently has a slight risk for excessive
rainfall that day.

Sara has produced a tremendous amount of rain in Honduras. Data from 
the country's government indicate reports of more than 40 inches of 
rain at some locations. Heavy rainfall is continuing over portions 
of the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, areas of heavy
rainfall will continue to cause significant and life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides as Sara moves further inland.

2. The heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Sara is winding down
across northern Honduras, however the risk of catastrophic flooding
impacts will continue.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 17.8N  89.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  18/0600Z 18.9N  91.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin