Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 161442
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Satellite imagery depicts that the center of Sara is located near 
the Bay Islands of Honduras. The overall convective structure is 
fairly disorganized, with a broken curved band on the northwest 
side, and less convection near the center of circulation. Satellite 
intensity estimates have decreased this advisory, although the 
initial intensity is held steady at 40 kt, based on earlier 
scatterometer data showing 35-40 knots over the western semicircle. 
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to 
investigate the system, which should help better determine the 
structure and intensity.

The storm appears to have started to drift west-northwestward with
an estimated motion of 290/02 kt.  A mid-level ridge should
strengthen to the northeast of Sara later today, which is forecast
to cause the tropical cyclone to move toward the west-northwest
through Sunday, with a slight increase in forward speed. On the
forecast track, the system should make landfall in Belize just
beyond the 24 h forecast point.  After landfall, Sara or its
remnants should turn northwestward as it moves across the southern
portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. The latest NHC forecast track is
similar to the previous and lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

The current intensity forecast is for the system to hold steady
through landfall which is in good agreement with the intensity
guidance. Although, some intensity fluctuations are possible as Sara
moves over the Gulf of Honduras and approaches Belize during the
next 24 h. After landfall, the storm will weaken and models are in
good agreement that it should dissipate and open into a trough over
the Yucatan Peninsula before reaching the Bay of Campeche or the
Gulf of Mexico. Based on this model guidance, the intensity forecast
shows dissipation at 60 h, although that could occur sooner. The
remnants of Sara could interact with a frontal system to enhance
convection near the northern Gulf coast in the early or middle part
of next week.

The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be
catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already
suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast
and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara 
will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides 
over northern portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will
cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of
Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 16.3N  86.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 16.4N  86.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 16.9N  88.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 17.8N  89.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  18/1200Z 19.2N  90.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly