Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Forecast Discussion

038 
WTNT44 KNHC 140234
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
1000 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

The disturbance has not changed much over the past several hours
with deep convection persisting near and to the west of the
estimated center. Although the convection is relatively well
organized, the definition of the low-level circulation remains poor,
and for that reason, the system is not yet a tropical depression.
The initial intensity remains 25 kt and the minimum pressure is
around 1005 mb based on surface observations.

The system continues to move westward at about 8 kt on the south
side of a mid-level ridge that is centered near the Florida Straits.
This ridge should keep the disturbance on a westward track
until Friday, taking the system over or just north of eastern
Honduras. After that, the ridge is expected to break down, and the
models agree that cyclone will meander in weak steering currents
from late Friday through the weekend. This expected slow motion will
cause the system to produce heavy rains over the same region,
likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions of Central
America. By early next week, ridging should become re-established
over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which should cause the
system to move northwestward across Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula. The NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the
various consensus models.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening during
the next few days with vertical wind shear expected to be low and
mid-level humidities forecast to remain relatively high near the
system. However, there remains a significant amount of uncertainty
in how much land interaction there will be with Honduras during the
next several days. If the system remains offshore, it will likely
take advantage of the conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions
and at least steadily strengthen through the weekend. However, if
the system moves even a little south of the forecast track, notably
less strengthening or even weakening could occur. The NHC intensity
forecast follows the trend of the previous one and is near the
middle of the guidance envelope. However, it must be stressed that
there is a lot of uncertainty in this intensity forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador,
eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.

2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when
it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras and northeastern
Nicaragua on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane watches and tropical
storm warnings are in effect for portions of that area.

3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week
where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.
Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates
and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring
to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.
Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 16.1N  80.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  14/1200Z 16.1N  82.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  15/0000Z 16.2N  83.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 16.3N  84.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 48H  16/0000Z 16.2N  85.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 60H  16/1200Z 16.0N  85.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 72H  17/0000Z 15.9N  85.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 96H  18/0000Z 16.6N  86.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 19.3N  89.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi