Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT43 KNHC 101434
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Convection has continued to weaken this morning and move farther
away to the east of the low-level center.  Rafael’s remaining
convection is all located more than 75 miles east-northeast of the
center.  A recent observation of a 33-kt 1-min wind from buoy 42001
indicates that Rafael still likely has tropical-storm-force winds.
Gradual weakening is expected to continue because Rafael is located
within a very dry environment, which is forecast to become even
drier over the next 24 to 36 h.  The NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous one and follows the intensity guidance.
Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF model suggests that
Rafael should lose its convection and become a remnant low within
the next 12 to 24 h.  Rafael is expected to become a remnant low
either tonight or on Monday.

Rafael has been drifting toward the north-northwest, or 345/3 kt.
Rafael will remain over the Gulf of Mexico as it spins down over the
next couple of days, performing a small clockwise loop over the
central Gulf of Mexico through Monday in weak steering currents,
before being pushed southward and southwestward by the low-level
flow on Tuesday.  The latest NHC track forecast lies close to the
consensus models, and only minor tweaks were made to the previous
NHC track forecast.  The NHC forecast calls for the remnant low of
Rafael to open up into a trough and dissipate by mid-week, and this
solution is also shown by the latest GFS and ECMWF models.

Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are
still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the
northern and western Gulf Coast, and this will likely continue
into Monday before subsiding on Tuesday.

Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along portions of the Gulf Coast
through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 26.3N  91.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 26.4N  91.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 25.9N  90.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/0000Z 25.0N  90.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/1200Z 24.1N  91.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  13/0000Z 23.8N  92.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen