Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory

000
WTNT23 KNHC 080557
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024
0600 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N  87.5W AT 08/0600Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  956 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 105SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N  87.5W AT 08/0600Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N  86.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.7N  88.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.8N  89.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.1N  91.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.2N  91.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.3N  92.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.9N  92.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 23.7N  93.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  30SW  40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.0N  93.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N  87.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY