Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Advisory

789 
WTNT23 KNHC 050254
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024
0300 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  77.2W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  77.2W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  76.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.6N  78.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.4N  79.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.4N  81.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   5SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N  83.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.6N  84.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.4N  85.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 26.6N  87.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 27.1N  89.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW  80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N  77.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN