Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2211

   Mesoscale Discussion 2211
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0738 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

   Areas affected...parts of southern Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 050138Z - 050415Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms may effectively translate east/southeast along the
   cold front, with localized hail toward the I-35 corridor this
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to push southeastward across
   central and southern TX, with renewed storms west of I-35 recently.
   The air mass is moist and unstable with little cap. Deep-layer wind
   fields are generally parallel to the front, with weak flow in the
   850 to 700 mb layer.  This may limit rightward propagation potential
   off the front. However, boundary-layer southeast winds will aid
   inflow and convergence along the front. As the front continues
   southeastward, new updrafts may develop, with brief hail potential.
   In general, most cells should not be severe for very long, and as
   such, a watch is not anticipated.

   ..Jewell.. 11/05/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28409940 29119936 29979870 30599799 30729724 30369683
               29779704 28939778 28439829 28209904 28409940