Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2210

   Mesoscale Discussion 2210
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0607 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

   Areas affected...North-central Arkansas into south-central Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 705...

   Valid 050007Z - 050100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 705 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe potential, including the risk of a tornado or two,
   may be increasing over portions of north-central AR into
   south-central MO -- on the eastern edge of Tornado Watch 705.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms out ahead of the main
   convective line has shown a recent uptick in intensity and
   organization over north-central AR into south-central MO. This may
   be in response to a strengthening low-level jet from the south (see
   LZK VWP) and associated surface pressure falls/increasing low-level
   confluence. Boundary-layer moisture is also increasing ahead of
   these storms (lower 70s dewpoints streaming northward), which should
   aid in intensification despite modest instability. Large
   clockwise-curved hodographs (around 400 m2/s2 effective SRH) will
   support embedded right-moving supercells with an associated tornado
   risk, and a strong tornado cannot be entirely ruled out given the
   ample boundary-layer streamwise vorticity.

   ..Weinman.. 11/05/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36559312 37029294 37429243 37449210 37209190 36499224
               36159275 36269311 36559312