Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2198

   Mesoscale Discussion 2198
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0719 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of northwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 040119Z - 040245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind and hail risk may persist for a
   few more hours across portions of northwest Texas. The threat should
   remain too localized for a watch.

   DISCUSSION...A few loosely organized thunderstorm clusters are
   ongoing along a trailing northeast/southwest-oriented low-level
   confluence zone in northwest TX this evening. Nearby VWP data
   indicates around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear oriented parallel to the
   boundary, which combined with 1500 J/kg MLCAPE will continue to
   support loosely organized clusters for the next few hours. Isolated
   instances of severe hail (generally 1-1.75 inches) and locally
   severe gusts could accompany the stronger storms, though the risk
   appears too marginal/localized for a watch.

   ..Weinman/Smith.. 11/04/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32460068 32830070 33200022 33769940 33989879 33969844
               33769825 33249825 32249971 32200034 32460068