Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2197

   Mesoscale Discussion 2197
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0646 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

   Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 702...

   Valid 040046Z - 040245Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 702 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes may
   persist through the evening, extending into far western Arkansas.
   Another watch will likely be needed prior to watch 702 expiration.

   DISCUSSION...An organized line of storms currently stretches from
   just south of the Tulsa area southwestward toward Durant OK, with
   significant lightning activity and cooling storm tops.  Surface
   analysis shows that the boundary has not moved much, however,
   stronger elevated instability and moisture exists just above the
   cooler surface layer. GPS PWAT values are near 1.80" at Ft. Smith
   AR, and the 00Z sounding from SHV measured over 2.00".  

   Given persistent southwest flow just off the surface, with around 40
   kt at 850 mb, additional destabilization is possible ahead of the
   ongoing line of storms, and around the west side of the AR
   precipitation shield. 

   Thus, theses storms may remain rather robust for several more hours,
   aided by substantial moisture flux and deep-layer shear. Even with
   somewhat cooler/skin layer temperatures, a few damaging gusts may
   occur. Tornadoes appear most likely as the main boundary gradually
   mixes north, and where it intersects the line of storms.

   ..Jewell.. 11/04/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33849634 34559603 35109573 35619580 35969516 35989460
               35589403 34939379 34049407 33769470 33759606 33849634