Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2189

   Mesoscale Discussion 2189
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0438 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

   Areas affected...Far Southwest MO...Northwest AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031038Z - 031245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Ongoing convective line across northeast Oklahoma is
   expected to weaken as it moves into far southwest Missouri and
   northwest Arkansas. A watch is not currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...A well-organized convective line continues to move
   across eastern OK. Northern portion of the line has surged more
   northeastward, with current storm motion estimated at 40 to 45 kt.
   This takes this portion of the line to the northeastern OK border
   around 1130Z. A stable airmass currently exists downstream across
   far southwest MO and northwest AR, and the general expectation is
   for the line to weaken below severe thresholds as it enters this
   region. As a result, a watch is not currently anticipated, but
   overall convective trends will still be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Edwards.. 11/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36769459 37179426 37069345 35879283 34959318 34939435
               35829450 36769459