Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2185

   Mesoscale Discussion 2185
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0830 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of the Texas South Plains...Northwest
   Texas...and southwest Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 030130Z - 030400Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Portions of the Texas South Plains, northwest Texas, and
   southwest Oklahoma are being monitored for increasing severe
   thunderstorm potential during the next few hours. It is still
   unclear if a watch will be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Along and north of an outflow boundary extending from
   north-central TX into the southern Permian Basin, reduced convective
   development on the backside of an earlier midlevel wave is leading
   to gradual air mass recovery. During the next few hours, the
   low-level jet will ramp up across the region in response to ascent
   in the left exit region of a subtropical jet overspreading the area.
   The associated deep-layer ascent and low-level warm advection atop
   the cold pool will support another uptick in convective development
   over the next few hours. Enlarging hodographs (40-50 kt of effective
   shear) with ample low-level clockwise curvature will conditionally
   support semi-discrete supercell structures initially. If these
   storms can root at the surface, all hazards (including brief
   tornadoes) will be possible. 

   With time, the strengthening ascent amid deep moisture and minimal
   inhibition should promote numerous regenerative thunderstorms,
   leading to uncertainty in the overall severe risk (given a mixed
   mode). However, the aforementioned shear profiles will still
   conditionally support embedded supercell structures, and the
   low-level jet could allow for upscale growth/cold pool organization
   with time. 

   It is still unclear if the overall severe risk will warrant a watch,
   though convective and environmental trends are being monitored.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 11/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33860165 34449985 34799906 34809850 34619794 34069783
               33409811 32659979 32440060 32410138 32640176 33500197
               33860165