Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 021436
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132024
800 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Lane has continued to produce deep convection this morning over the
low-level center, with cold cloud tops near -80 C. Objective and
subjective satellite intensity estimates have increased and range
from 35 to 45 kt. Given the continued deep convection and using a
blend of these satellite estimates, the initial intensity is set to
40 kt for this advisory.

Lane continues to move westward at 270/6 kt, and this general motion 
should continue over the next few days as the storm is steered by a 
a subtropical ridge to the north. The latest NHC forecast is very 
similar to the previous one, and remains near the latest consensus 
aids.

Warm sea-surface temperatures and a relative low wind shear 
environment could allow Lane to strengthen a little more today. 
Environmental conditions become less favorable on Sunday as 
southwesterly shear is forecast to increase over the system, and the 
storm is forecast to move into a drier airmass early next week, 
which should cause Lane to weaken. Lane is forecast to degenerate to 
a post-tropical remnant low in about 48 h, although given the small 
size of the system it could dissipate even sooner than forecast as 
is depicted by some model fields, including the GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 11.3N 130.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 11.3N 131.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 11.3N 132.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 11.4N 133.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 11.4N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/0000Z 11.5N 136.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1200Z 11.5N 137.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly