Hurricane Kristy Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 252037
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
200 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024

Latest satellite images continue to depict that Kristy is 
struggling within an increasingly hostile environment. The 
convective pattern has continued to become more asymmetric, as 
southerly vertical wind shear continues to increase, displacing most 
of the convection over the northern semicircle. The eyewall has 
weakened as well, with convective cloud tops warming. The inner core 
degradation was further confirmed by a recent GMI microwave pass. 
Subjective and objective intensity estimates continue to plummet 
this afternoon and range between 90-105 kt. Given the satellite 
presentation, inner structure degradation, and these estimates, the 
initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt for this advisory. 

Kristy is moving toward the northwest with an estimated motion of 
305/12 kt. The system will move northwestward to north-northwestward 
for the next couple of days, steered along the southwestern 
periphery of a ridge located over the eastern Pacific. Towards the 
end of the period, as the system weakens and becomes a remnant low, 
the system's forward speed will also decrease with a turn toward the 
west-southwest within the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is 
very near the previous one.

The environment surrounding Kristy continues to become more and more 
unfavorable. Vertical wind shear is forecast to continue to 
increase, with cooling sea-surface temperatures and drier mid-levels 
of the atmosphere. Therefore, steady to rapid weakening is 
anticipated through the forecast period. Model simulated satellite 
data depict that Kristy will struggle to produce convection late 
this weekend, becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 48 h, and 
dissipating into a trough by 72 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast 
follows these model trends.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 16.8N 125.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 18.0N 127.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 20.0N 128.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 22.0N 129.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 22.8N 130.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  28/0600Z 22.7N 131.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly