Hurricane Kristy Forecast Discussion

692 
WTPZ42 KNHC 240835
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
200 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Kristy looks a little less impressive this evening, as satellite 
imagery indicates that the eye has clouded over.  There are hints 
in infrared imagery that the hurricane is undergoing an eyewall 
replacement cycle, although there are no recent microwave images to 
definitively show this.  The subjective and objective satellite 
intensity estimates have decreased a little over the past 6 h, and 
based on this the initial intensity is decreased to 130 kt.  The 
wind radii have been revised based on recent scatterometer 
overpasses showing that Kristy has gotten a little larger in size.

The initial motion is now 270/17 kt.  Kristy is currently on the 
south side of a deep-layer ridge over the northeastern Pacific.  A 
turn to the west-northwest with some decrease in forward speed is 
expected during the next day or two as the hurricane moves along the
southwestern periphery of the ridge.  A sharper turn to the 
northwest or north-northwest is expected by 48 h as Kristy moves 
between the ridge and a large mid- to -upper-level trough located 
east and northeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  By the end of the 
forecast period, Kristy is expected to shear apart, with the 
cyclone or its remnants turning west-southwestward in the 
low-level flow. The new forecast track is similar to the previous 
track, and it lies near or just to the southwest of the consensus 
models.

Kristy is expected to remain over warm water and in a conducive 
light shear environment for the next 24-36 h.  Based on this and an 
expectation that the hurricane will complete an eyewall 
replacement, the intensity forecast shows some re-intensification 
during this time. After 36 h, the environment becomes much more 
hostile, with strong shear, a much drier air mass, and cooler sea 
surface temperatures along the forecast track.  All guidance agrees 
that rapid weakening should occur, and the new intensity forecast 
follows the trend of the guidance.  Kristy should lose its 
convection and become post-tropical by 96 h, and while the forecast 
includes a 120 h point as a remnant low there is a possibility the 
system will degenerate to a trough by that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 14.1N 118.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 14.2N 121.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 14.9N 123.7W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 16.0N 126.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 17.7N 128.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  26/1800Z 19.5N 129.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 21.1N 131.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 21.7N 133.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  29/0600Z 20.0N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven