Hurricane Kristy Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 232045
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
200 PM PDT Wed Oct 23 2024

Kristy continues to rapidly intensify this afternoon. The eye has 
cleared over the past few hours, and surrounding very deep 
convection prevails with infrared cloud tops as cold as -75 to -80 
deg C. Satellite data suggests continued strengthening since SAB 
provided a T6.5 Dvorak classification at 18z, and the initial 
intensity is set to 135 kt, in best agreement with recent UW-CIMSS 
ADT estimates.

Major Hurricane Kristy is moving westward around 17 kt along the
southern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the Eastern Pacific
and Western United States. This fast westward motion is forecast to
continue over the next 24-30 h before turning to the west-northwest
this weekend as an upper-level trough impinges on the western extent
of the ridge. Kristy is forecast to encounter a highly sheared
environment this weekend and the system will become decoupled, with
the vertically shallow vortex steered by the low-level ridge late in
the forecast period. No significant changes were made to the latest
NHC track forecast.

Kristy remains a small hurricane in a weak shear environment over 
warm SSTs. The satellite presentation shows persistent convection, 
showing the potential for additional near-term strengthening as long 
as an eyewall replacement cycle does not commence soon. The latest 
NHC forecast remains near the top of the guidance envelope and has 
max winds around 140 kt, peaking at Category 5 strength. Slow 
weakening will begin on Friday as Kristy encounters increasing 
shear, and more rapid weakening will set in this weekend as the 
storm moves into an increasingly hostile environment with high shear 
and cooler SSTs. The storm is forecast to weaken to a post-tropical 
low by 96 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 14.1N 115.5W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 14.0N 118.0W  140 KT 160 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 14.1N 121.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 14.7N 123.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 15.8N 126.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  26/0600Z 17.4N 128.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 19.5N 130.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 21.0N 133.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  28/1800Z 20.0N 136.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Adams