Hurricane Kristy Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230840
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
200 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024

Kristy is rapidly strengthening this morning, with the latest
satellite imagery showing an eye developing in the central dense
overcast and good cirrus outflow in the western semicircle.
Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are now in
the 75-95 kt range, and the initial intensity is increased to a
possibly conservative 85 kt.

Kristy is moving 265/17 kt on the south side of the subtropical
ridge, and this general motion should continue for the next 36 h or
so. From 36-72 h, Kristy should turn northwestward toward a break
in the ridge caused by a large mid- to upper-level trough to the
northeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  After that, strong upper-level
winds should cause the cyclone to shear apart, with the low-level
circulation turning westward on the south side of a low-level
ridge. The new forecast track is generally similar to the old track,
but is has been nudged northward between 60-96 h in response to a
northward shift in the guidance.

The hurricane should remain in an environment of light shear over
warm sea surface temperatures for the next 36 h or so, and thus
continued steady to rapid strengthening is expected during that
time.  The first 36-48 h of the intensity forecast is at or a 
little above the upper edge of the intensity guidance and calls for 
a peak intensity of 120 kt.  However, given current trends, it would 
not be a surprise if Kristy got stronger than this.  Later in the 
forecast period, the cyclone should encounter strong southwesterly 
shear and move over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and this 
combination should cause steady to rapid weakening.  This part of 
the new intensity forecast calls for the system to weaken to a 
tropical storm by 96 h and then quickly decay to a remnant low 
pressure area by 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 14.5N 112.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 14.3N 114.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 14.2N 118.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 14.2N 121.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 14.7N 123.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  25/1800Z 15.7N 126.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 17.2N 128.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 20.0N 131.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 21.1N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven