Hurricane Kristy Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230235
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
800 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024

Kristy continues to steadily intensify.  1-minute geostationary 
satellite imagery show continuous deep bursts of convection near the 
center, a curved band wrapping around the western and southern 
portions of the circulation, and symmetric upper-level outflow.  An 
AMSR2 microwave pass from 1919 UTC showed a vertically aligned low- 
and mid-level eye.  Dvorak estimates have increased this cycle and 
the initial intensity is increased to 70 kt, representing a blend of 
the TAFB (T4.0/65 kt) and SAB (T4.5/77 kt) classifications.

A subtropical ridge to the north is steering the hurricane to the 
west at about 17 kt.  This westward motion should continue for the 
next couple of days until Kristy reaches a weakness in the ridge.  
By Friday, models anticipate the hurricane to turn 
west-northwestward followed by a northwestward turn on Saturday.  
The more shallow vortex is expect to bend back to the west-northwest 
in the low-level flow by the end of the forecast period.  The 
guidance envelope remains tightly clustered and there are only minor 
changes made to the latest official track forecast.

There is little change to the intensity forecast reasoning as well. 
Low vertical wind shear, ample mid-level moisture, and warm sea 
surface temperature all provide the ingredients to support steady to 
rapid intensification.  Statistical guidance is still showing above 
average chances of rapid intensification in the next 24 h and the 
official forecast reflects this.  Global models suggest vertical 
wind shear could increase quickly by Friday as Kristy approaches 
cooler waters.  Steady to rapid weakening is expected beyond 72 h 
and Kristy should lose its organized deep convection by 120 h and 
become a post-tropical cyclone.  The latest intensity forecast lies 
at the top of the guidance envelope in the short-term and closer to 
center during the middle to long-range time periods.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 14.7N 110.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 14.5N 112.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 14.3N 116.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 14.2N 119.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 14.4N 122.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  25/1200Z 15.2N 125.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 16.4N 127.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 19.2N 131.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 20.6N 135.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Bucci