Tropical Storm Oscar Forecast Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 220240
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162024
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

The center of Oscar has emerged off the northern coast of eastern
Cuba, but the system is struggling to maintain its identity as a
tropical cyclone. The limited convection noted in recent satellite
images is displaced over 100 n mi to the east of the center, likely
the result of increasing westerly shear and significant intrusions
of dry air. Also, satellite images suggest the center could be
somewhat elongated compared to earlier today. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters sampled the wind field tonight and recently
reported peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 51 kt in clear air to the
east of the center. Based on this, the initial intensity is held at
35 kt for this advisory.

Oscar has made its anticipated turn and is now moving toward the
north-northeast (015/7 kt). A mid-level trough over the southwestern
Atlantic is expected to steer Oscar northeastward at a faster speed
during the next couple of days. By late Wednesday, Oscar should be
absorbed by a larger, non-tropical area of low pressure that is
forecast to develop over the western Atlantic. There were no
notable changes to the track guidance this cycle, and the NHC track
prediction remains similar to the previous one.

Based on satellite trends tonight, it seems more unlikely that Oscar
will be able to restrengthen given the continued bouts of dry air
and stronger shear expected over the next couple of days. As a
result, the updated NHC intensity forecast shows Oscar degenerating
to a post-tropical low in 24 h, although this could occur even
sooner if convection does not redevelop during the upcoming
convective maximum period. There is still a threat of additional
rainfall producing flash flooding across portions of eastern Cuba
and the southeastern Bahamas through Tuesday.


Key Messages:

1. Through Tuesday, additional periods of heavy rainfall may lead to
flash flooding and mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba,
especially in areas of steep terrain. In addition, localized flash
flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
southeastern and central Bahamas overnight and Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 21.8N  75.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 22.8N  74.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 24.3N  73.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  23/1200Z 26.5N  71.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0000Z 29.3N  68.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart