Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 212044
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
300 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024

The low pressure system located offshore the southern coast of
Mexico has quickly become better organized since last night based on
available GOES-West imagery and wind-derived satellite data. An
ASCAT wind pass from a few hours ago indicated that the surface
circulation had become well-defined and sustained winds were already
around 30-35 kt. Subjective Dvorak analysis from TAFB and SAB at 18Z
were T2.0 and T2.5, respectively. Based on these data, advisories
are initiated on Tropical Storm Kristy with an initial intensity of
35 kt.

The initial motion of this tropical storm is westward at 270/15 kt.
Kristy is expected to continue on this general motion during the
next few days as is steered by broad subtropical ridge centered well
west of Baja California. Late this week, Kristy will be approaching
a weakness created by a large cutoff low over the North Pacific.
This weakness should allow the tropical cyclone to turn to the
northwest by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is
in good agreement, especially early in the forecast period, and the
initial forecast track follows the HCCA and TVCE models closely.

Relatively low wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures should
allow Kristy to steadily gain strength over the next few days. The
forecast calls for the tropical cyclone to become a hurricane on
Wednesday. SHIPS guidance from both GFS and ECMWF suggest that the
wind shear values will be less than 10 kt by midweek, while the
sea-surface temperatures will be around 28-29 C. Such favorable
conditions could favor significant strengthening once the inner-core
becomes established. By Friday, Kristy will be crossing the 26 C
isotherm and the global model guidance also indicates that the wind
shear will also abruptly increase. Thus weakening is expected to
begin between forecast days 4 and 5. The NHC intensity forecast is
in good agreement with the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach
(HCCA).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 13.5N 102.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 13.5N 104.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 13.9N 107.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 14.1N 110.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 14.1N 113.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  24/0600Z 14.0N 117.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 14.0N 120.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 15.7N 126.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 19.0N 130.2W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Delgado/Papin