Tropical Depression Nadine Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT45 KNHC 200841
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Nadine Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152024
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Mexican radar data and GOES-16 nighttime visible imagery show that 
Nadine still has enough structure to it for the system to remain a 
tropical depression at this time.  The coverage of cold cloud tops 
on infrared imagery has certainly diminished over the past 6 to 12 
h, although there are still some cold cloud tops over the center and 
in the southwest semicircle.  The center of Nadine is moving over 
increasingly higher terrain of the Mexican state of Chiapas, with 
the peaks of some nearby mountains now as high as 5,000 ft above 
sea level.

The depression is moving toward the west-southwest, or 255/12 kt.  
The forecast shows the system accelerating slightly and bending a 
bit more toward the southwest this morning.  This motion would bring 
Nadine toward terrain of about 8,000 to 9,000 ft above sea level in 
about 6 hours.  Terrain of that height is likely to break apart 
Nadine's low-level circulation, which should cause the cyclone to 
dissipate later this morning.  A remnant low position is provided 
at 12 hours for continuity, but Nadine will likely have dissipated 
by that time. 

Key Messages:

1. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track
of Nadine across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern
Belize.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 16.8N  91.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  20/1800Z 15.7N  93.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen