Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT45 KNHC 190239
TCDAT5

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152024
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

The satellite presentation of the disturbance has improved this 
evening. Curved bands of deep convection have developed closer to 
the estimated center position, although it is unclear from recent 
passive microwave imagery whether a well-defined surface center 
exists yet. The strongest winds are occurring within the convective 
bands to the north of the center, where NOAA buoy 42056 has reported 
sustained winds of 25-30 kt and gusts to tropical storm force. Based 
on these observations and available satellite data, the system will 
remain a 30-kt potential tropical cyclone for this advisory. Data 
from an ASCAT-C overpass will arrive within the next couple of 
hours, which should provide some clarity about the current intensity 
of the system and whether it has a well-defined center.

The disturbance appears to be moving westward at about 7 kt to the 
south of a high pressure ridge over the eastern United States. The 
latest track guidance agrees that the system should continue on a 
westward heading through Saturday night and cross the coast of 
Belize between 12-24 h from now. The latest NHC track forecast is 
very similar to the previous prediction and remains close to the 
multi-model consensus aids.

Despite limited time remaining over water, warm SSTs and relatively 
low shear in a moist environment should allow the system to 
consolidate and strengthen into a tropical storm before it moves 
ashore. The strongest winds are forecast to occur within the 
northern semicircle, and a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect 
from Belize City northward to Tulum, Mexico. Weakening is expected 
once the system moves inland, and it is forecast to dissipate over 
southern Mexico by early Sunday.

Key Messages:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen is expected to bring impacts 
from heavy rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of 
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this weekend. Localized 
areas of flash flooding are possible as the system moves westward 
through southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the 
coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the 
Tropical Storm Watch area by early Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 17.6N  86.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  19/1200Z 17.5N  87.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  20/0000Z 17.3N  90.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart