Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 030848
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112024
300 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024

The depression still has a disheveled satellite appearance, with a 
few clusters of deep convection but no clear signs of improved 
organization since the previous advisory. This is consistent with 
the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates (T2.0/30-kt), and the 
initial intensity remains 30 kt. The center position of the system 
is very uncertain given the lack of recent microwave or 
scatterometer data. Based on recent fixes, satellite trends, and 
earlier scatterometer data, the center has been nudged slightly 
north and east of previous estimates. A partial scatterometer pass 
shows the depression is likely interacting with a larger trough that 
extends northward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

The uncertain initial motion of the system is northeastward at 2 kt. 
In general, the global models show a northeastward to northward 
motion through Friday while the system approaches and moves across 
the coast of southern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area. 
Once again, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted eastward based 
on the latest guidance. But, the forecast still might require future 
adjustments if it is determined that the center is located farther 
east than currently estimated.

Significant intensification appears unlikely given the broad, 
disorganized convective structure of the depression and continued 
northeasterly shear over the system. However, the warm SSTs and 
moist environment in which it is embedded could allow for the 
depression to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of 
Mexico, and this is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast. 
Regardless, the primary threat remains heavy rainfall that will 
continue over portions of southern Mexico for the next day or two.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it
reaches the coast of southern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning
remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico.

2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to 
portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and 
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, 
especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican 
states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco, and coastal Guerrero.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 14.5N  95.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 15.1N  95.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 16.1N  95.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/1800Z 17.5N  95.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart