Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 030239
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112024
900 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024

The depression has changed little during the past several hours, 
and it remains embedded in a larger-scale trough that extends from 
offshore of Manzanillo northeastward to the central Gulf of Mexico.  
The system itself continues to produce patches of deep convection, 
and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt in agreement with 2.0 
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.

The depression has been drifting southwestward, but the models 
generally agree that an abrupt turn to the north should occur on 
Thursday, with that motion bringing the system to the coast of 
southern Mexico Thursday night or Friday.  The NHC track forecast 
has been adjusted to the east to be in better agreement with the 
latest models, but this prediction still lies to the west of most of 
the model solutions.

Strengthening is possible before the cyclone reaches the coast, but 
since the system remains disorganized and embedded in a larger 
trough, significant intensification seems unlikely.  The official 
intensity forecast is near the high end of the model guidance.  The 
main threat from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall that 
will likely continue in portions of southern Mexico during the next 
day or two.  

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it
reaches the coast of southern Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning 
remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico.

2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to
portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible,
especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican
states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 14.2N  96.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 14.4N  96.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 14.9N  96.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 15.8N  96.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  05/0000Z 16.8N  96.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi