Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT42 KNHC 012055
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2024

Kirk's appearance on satellite has improved with a large burst of 
convection near the center and deep convective bands continuing to 
wrap around the southeast side. A 1808 UTC GPM microwave pass 
showed an improved inner-core structure with an eyewall noted on the 
37 GHz channel. The UW-CIMSS DMINT intensity estimate associated 
with the microwave image was 63 kt. This estimate combined with the 
most recent TAFB Dvorak fix of 4.0/65 kt is the basis for making 
Kirk a hurricane this afternoon with an intensity of 65 kt.  

Kirk is moving slightly more poleward this afternoon, with an 
estimated motion of 305/12 kt. This motion, with perhaps a slight 
slowdown, should continue over the next couple of days as Kirk is 
primarily steered along the southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge 
positioned to its north. The western extent of this ridge will 
become eroded by a long-wave trough offshore of eastern North 
America towards the latter part of this week, allowing Kirk to turn 
first northwestward and then recurving north-northeastward by the 
end of the forecast period. The track guidance continues to be in 
good agreement, and the latest NHC track forecast lies near the 
middle of the guidance envelope, very similar to the prior advisory 
and between the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids.

Now that Kirk's inner core is becoming better established it is 
poised to intensify at a faster rate. Favorable environmental 
factors surrounding Kirk, such as decreasing shear, warm 28-30 C 
sea-surface temperatures, and plenty of deep-layer moisture will 
continue to support a faster rate of strengthening through the 24-48 
h period. The NHC intensity forecast shows Kirk becoming a major 
hurricane towards the end of the forecast period. In addition, 
Kirk's wind field is forecast to expand as the system moves poleward 
through the end of the week. Thereafter, hard to predict inner-core 
structural changes will likely lead to fluctuations in intensity, 
though by day 5, shear increases again with weakening commencing. 
However, Kirk will likely remain a large and formidable hurricane 
through the forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is close the middle 
of the intensity guidance consensus and still a little on the 
upper-end towards the end of the forecast period. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 16.2N  40.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 17.1N  41.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 18.3N  43.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 19.4N  44.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 20.4N  46.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 21.5N  47.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 22.9N  49.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 27.0N  51.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 33.0N  49.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Mora/Papin