Hurricane John Wind Speed Probabilities

432 
FOPZ15 KNHC 262039
PWSEP5

HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102024               
2100 UTC THU SEP 26 2024                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65   
KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                            

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

MANZANILLO     34  3  17(20)   7(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
MANZANILLO     50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

L CARDENAS     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
L CARDENAS     50  7   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

ZIHUATANEJO    34 53   1(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY