Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2102

   Mesoscale Discussion 2102
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0110 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

   Areas affected...southern Lower Michigan into Indiana and
   northwestern Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241810Z - 242015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Local risk for a couple of strong gusts and marginal hail,
   and possibly a brief tornado or two, is expected to evolve across
   the southern Lower Michigan/Indiana/northwestern Ohio vicinity this
   afternoon.  Isolated/marginal nature of risk may preclude the need
   for WW issuance, but we will continue to monitor evolution.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover
   decreasing slightly ahead of a mid-level cyclonic circulation moving
   northeastward across the area.  This, combined with associated/cool
   temperatures aloft and modest afternoon heating has resulted in
   development of 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. 

   Within the zone of broad/background ascent, some convective increase
   is noted over the past hour, with an associated uptick in lightning.
    This trend should continue over the next couple of hours -- likely
   resulting in a few relatively vigorous/low-topped storms which may
   prove capable of producing marginal hail and a strong gust or two. 
   A brief tornado or two will also be possible, particularly across
   southern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana where low-level flow is
   backed/east-southeasterly near and north of a weak warm front.

   At this time, overall risk is expected to remain localized -- too
   isolated for serious WW consideration.  However, we will continue to
   monitor short-term trends across this area that could warrant
   reconsideration of the need for a watch.

   ..Goss/Guyer.. 09/24/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

   LAT...LON   41688728 42498604 42418538 41878439 41148428 39698516
               39278735 39928710 40898740 41688728