Hurricane John Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 231758
TCDEP5

Hurricane John Special Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102024
1200 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024

John has continued to rapidly intensify and the latest images
suggest an eye may be forming on visible and infrared imagery.
Recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from
65 to 85 kt.  The current intensity estimate is increased to 75 kt.
The new NHC intensity forecast shows John strengthening to a major
hurricane prior to reaching the coast of Mexico.  It is possible
that the hurricane could strengthen more than forecast.

Only a minor tweak was made to the previous NHC track forecast to 
show landfall occurring a bit sooner.  Residents of Mexico in the 
hurricane warning area should rush preparations to completion this 
afternoon.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. John is expected to continue rapidly intensifying, and is 
forecast to become a major hurricane before the center reaches the 
coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area on 
Tuesday. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge 
are expected within portions of the warning area.

2. John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of
southern Mexico through this week.  This heavy rainfall will likely
cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and
southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1800Z 15.1N  98.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 15.3N  98.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 15.8N  97.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 16.1N  97.6W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
 48H  25/1200Z 16.3N  97.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 60H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen