Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2094

   Mesoscale Discussion 2094
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0115 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

   Areas affected...parts of eastern New Mexico and West Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 211815Z - 212015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Persistent upslope flow and daytime heating should allow
   for continued thunderstorm development early this afternoon over
   eastern NM. Gradual intensification/organization into supercells is
   expected. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a
   couple of tornadoes are possible. A WW is likely needed.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1810 UTC, regional WV imagery showed a potent
   upper low quickly overspreading the southern Rockies and High
   Plains. Height falls and the approach of a 70 kt speed max will
   support fairly strong forcing for ascent over the region through the
   next several hours. Diurnal heating and low-level warm air advection
   over much of eastern NM and west TX will support moderate
   destabilization with 1500-2000 J/Kg of MLCAPE expected. In
   combination with the synoptic scale-forcing and continued upslope of
   low-60s F surface dewpoints, additional storm development is likely
   early this afternoon.

   As convection evolves, the strong mid-level flow aloft will also
   gradually overspread the area, supporting large effective shear.
   KFDX VAD data shows veering low and mid-level hodographs have
   expanded, with 45-50 kt of effective shear present. Storm
   organization into supercells is expected with time. Fairly steep
   mid-level lapse rates (~7-8 C/Km) and the semi-discrete mode suggest
   large to very large hail will be likely with the more robust
   supercells. Damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are also
   possible, owing to the strengthening flow aloft, and enhanced
   low-level shear near a diffuse surface boundary.

   Short-term model guidance and observational trends suggest the
   ongoing convection should steadily increase in
   intensity/organization through the remainder of the afternoon.
   Additional storm development/intensification is also likely along
   the cold front across central NM later this afternoon, though timing
   remains somewhat uncertain. With the potential for all hazards
   across much of eastern NM and west TX, a WW appears likely in the
   next couple of hours.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 09/21/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   35490474 36430340 36430178 35850129 35330100 34130133
               31620314 31110422 31170503 31580537 32550541 34130526
               34720509 35490474