Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecast Discussion

053 
WTNT43 KNHC 161452
TCDAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082024
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The low pressure system that the NHC has been monitoring off the 
Carolina coast has not become better organized this morning. The 
low-level circulation remains elongated and not well defined, based 
on overnight data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and recent 
visible satellite images. The flight-level temperature data from the 
aircraft also suggested a frontal boundary remains in close 
proximity to the low, which is consistent with the cloud pattern of 
the system. The strongest winds and heaviest rains lie to the north 
and northeast of the estimated center and are currently spreading 
across southeastern North Carolina. Based on surface synoptic 
observations, the initial intensity is set at 45 kt.

Aircraft data and satellite images indicate the elongated center 
lies a bit north of previous estimates, with an uncertain initial 
motion of north-northwestward at 4 kt. This general motion should 
continue today, bringing the center toward the coast of South 
Carolina and inland within the warning area later today. However, it 
should be noted that much of the hazardous weather conditions extend 
well to the northeast of the center and are currently moving onshore 
over the Cape Fear region of North Carolina. A northwestward motion 
is forecast to continue over land while the weakening low spins 
down. The updated NHC track forecast lies a bit to the right of the 
previous prediction based on the latest track consensus aids.

With limited time before it moves inland, the chances of this system 
becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone continue to decrease. The 
intensity guidance shows quick weakening once the low crosses the 
coastline, and the official NHC intensity forecast brings the system 
down to 30 kt in 12 h, on the lower end of the guidance envelope but 
consistent with the global model fields. Weakening should continue 
through dissipation, which is forecast to occur on Wednesday.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical
Storm Warning area during the next several hours.

2. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding and minor river 
flooding is possible across southeast North Carolina and northeast 
South Carolina through tonight. There is also a risk of isolated 
flash and urban flooding across much of the Mid-Atlantic region 
through Wednesday.

3. Coastal flooding and high surf are likely along portions of
the southeastern U.S. coast through this afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 32.9N  78.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  17/0000Z 33.7N  79.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  17/1200Z 34.3N  79.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  18/0000Z 35.0N  80.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart