Tropical Storm Francine Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT41 KNHC 120848
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062024
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Francine has continued to rapidly weaken overnight while moving 
inland across eastern Louisiana. The system is highly sheared due to 
its interaction with a mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest. 
Francine is quickly losing tropical characteristics, and surface 
observations indicate the surface center is located south and west 
of the heaviest rainfall. Tropical storm conditions, especially in 
gusts, continue over portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the 
warning area. Earlier scatterometer data showed 35-40 kt offshore 
winds, and the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt.

The storm has slowed down a bit and is now moving northeastward at
about 10 kt. Francine is expected to turn north-northeastward and
northward today, bringing the center across central and northern
Mississippi. Continued weakening is expected, and tropical storm
conditions along the coasts of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi,
and Alabama are likely to subside this morning as the low weakens
and moves further inland. Given its degraded satellite structure,
Francine is likely to degenerate to a post-tropical low as early as 
this morning, with dissipation forecast to occur by 48 h.

An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge during the next 
several hours for portions of the eastern Louisiana and Mississippi 
coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect. Residents 
in the warning area should continue to follow advice given by local 
officials.

2. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for coastal portions
of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, where tropical
storm conditions could continue for the next few hours.

3. Francine will continue to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of 
flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding, across portions 
of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and the 
Southeast. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding is possible 
today and tonight over portions of central and northern Alabama and 
the Florida Panhandle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 30.9N  90.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 32.6N  89.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  13/0600Z 34.4N  90.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  13/1800Z 35.1N  90.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart