Hurricane Francine Forecast Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 112056
TCDAT1

Hurricane Francine Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062024
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Satellite, radar, and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
data indicate that not only has Francine stayed well organized 
during the past six hours despite increasing westerly shear, it has 
strengthened a little. The latest reports from the aircraft showed 
the central pressure has fallen to near 972 mb with maximum 700
mb flight-level winds of 99 kt to the southeast of the center.
Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt.

The initial motion is now 045/15 kt.  The flow between a mid- to
upper-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level
trough over Texas should steer Francine northeastward for the next
12 h or so.  The hurricane is expected to make landfall along the
Louisiana coast in the next few hours and move across southeastern
Louisiana tonight.  After that, a turn toward the north on the east
side of the trough will bring the center of Francine across
southwestern and central Mississippi on Thursday. This should be
followed by a northward motion with a decrease in forward speed
until the cyclone dissipates.  The new track guidance is a little
faster than for the previous advisory, so the new forecast track is
similar to, but faster than, the previous track.

Little change in strength is expected during the final hours before
landfall. After landfall, Francine is expected to quickly weaken
while also losing tropical characteristics. Transition to an
extratropical cyclone is expected to be complete by Friday morning,
with the cyclone forecast to dissipate after 60 h.

An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge through 
tonight for the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area
should continue to follow advice given by local officials.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana this evening and tonight, where a
Hurricane Warning is in effect. Ensure you are in a safe location
before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding,
across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. Flash and urban
flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower
Mississippi Valley tonight into Friday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 29.2N  91.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 30.8N  90.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 24H  12/1800Z 33.3N  90.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  13/0600Z 35.0N  90.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  13/1800Z 35.7N  90.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  14/0600Z 36.3N  90.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven