Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2043

   Mesoscale Discussion 2043
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0356 PM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Oregon into northeast Nevada
   and western into central Idaho

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 022056Z - 022230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of strong to severe gusts may accompany the
   deeper storm cores that manage to develop. Any severe threat that
   materializes should be sparse, and a WW issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A pronounced 500 mb vort max is currently traversing
   the CA/OR border, aiding in the ascent of marginally buoyant
   boundary-layer based parcels. MRMS mosaic radar imagery shows
   convective initiation underway from the lee of the Cascades toward
   eastern ID. These storms are developing atop a very dry boundary
   layer (evident via 50-60 F surface temperature/dewpoint spreads),
   with RAP forecast soundings showing inverted-v soundings extending
   up to 500 mb. As such, these storms will be high-based in nature.
   Strong mid-level flow is overspreading portions of the Interior West
   ahead of the approaching trough, contributing to 30+ kts of
   effective bulk shear. As such, a few storms may become marginally
   organized, capable producing strong to potentially severe gusts.
   However, severe potential is highly dependent on how vertically deep
   storm cores can become. The severe gust threat is expected to be
   sparse, and a WW issuance is not anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 09/02/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...OTX...PDT...
   MFR...

   LAT...LON   44142133 44812118 45552062 46051987 46361816 45771419
               44861296 43951263 41821330 40791411 40221486 40001533
               40001577 40221636 40551693 41031717 41781741 42351781
               42831848 43191920 43472024 43572053 44142133