000 WTPA41 PHFO 010246 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 39 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 PM HST Sat Aug 31 2024 Earlier this afternoon, the increasingly ragged low-level circulation center (LLCC) of Hone tucked itself underneath a burst of deep convection, but as the convection began to dissipate, it caused even more disruption to the once again exposed LLCC. GOES- West derived total precipitable water imagery reveals a nose of dry air is working cyclonically around the southern portion of an upper low about 220 nm south of Midway Atoll. This dry air has managed to overspread what's left of Hone's LLCC. Current intensity estimates remain 2.0 from PHFO and JTWC, and 2.5 from SAB. Objective estimates were slightly higher, and seemed to agree well with the uncontaminated ASCAT-B winds from the 2149 UTC pass. Thus, the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is 340/9, as Hone continues to work its way toward the low aloft. The track guidance is in good agreement that Hone's more recent northward motion will become more west-northwest again over the next 24 hours as the two features merge. This should be followed by significant slowing in the 24 to 36 hour timeframe. An erratic, slow motion between 36 and 48 hours should lead to a gradually increasing northward motion near the International Date Line by 48 hours as the now vertically-aligned Hone starts to move toward a mid-level col. The track guidance beyond 48 hours continues to trend slower with Hone as the models now show a deep layer anticyclone at the surface and aloft building north of the system. The forecast once again has been similarly adjusted toward the guidance consensus at the longer time ranges. The intensity forecast remains rather challenging, and the guidance continues to trend gradually weaker with time. Although Hone is finally entering a weak shear environment with sea surface temperatures of 28C or so through the first 48 hours, increasing dry air entrainment is now expected to allow for only modest intensification. The latest forecast has been adjusted slightly lower once again to follow this idea, but near the high end of the envelope of the reliable guidance. Due to the greater-than-normal uncertainties in the track, size, and intensity of Hone as it continues to interact with the low aloft, we are maintaining Tropical Storm Watches for Kure, Midway Atoll, and Pearl and Hermes Atolls. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 23.9N 176.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 25.1N 177.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 26.1N 179.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 26.5N 179.9E 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 27.5N 179.9E 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 29.0N 180.0E 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 30.4N 179.6E 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 32.2N 178.1E 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 33.9N 176.8E 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster R Ballard