507 WTPA41 PHFO 312046 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 38 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 31 2024 In a seemingly never-ending cycle, Hone has been getting a very vigorous burst of sheared convection over the low level circulation center each of the last several nights, only to have the center become fully exposed each morning. Today is no exception, and deep convection has been mainly limited to Hone's outer bands. The CIRA ProxyVis has been particularly helpful to monitor this daily evolution. It should be noted that the low level circulation center looks a bit more ragged this morning than it has in recent days. Current intensity has been maintained at 35 kt, splitting the difference between the somewhat lower subjective Dvorak estimates and the slightly stronger objective machine estimates, and also with a nod to the overnight ASCAT passes. The broad circulation of a low aloft about 200 nm south of Midway Atoll is beginning to pull Hone's low level circulation northward, and after about 24 hours of erratic, wobbly westward motion, the initial motion for this advisory is now 345/6. Track guidance remains in remarkably good agreement that Hone will continue to get pulled toward the center of the low aloft, with the circulations becoming vertically stacked in about 36 to 48 hours. A slower and perhaps erratic west-northwest motion is expected as that occurs. Although not explicitly shown in our forecast, both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF execute a complete loop of Hone over the International Date Line Sunday and Sunday night (HST). Afterwards, Hone should resume a more northward motion into the North Pacific. Beyond about 48 hours, this forecast track shifts a little to the right and slower than the previous forecast, to be more in line with TVCN and other consensus guidance. It remains somewhat questionable whether the low level circulation center of Hone will survive the alignment with the low aloft. However, guidance continues to show that it should do so, and conditions do generally appear to be favorable for restrengthening. Shear decreases to less than 10 kt within 24 hours, and Hone encounters the warmest sea surface temperatures yet along its track, near 29C. Our forecast has Hone continuing to peak in intensity in 2 to 3 days, similar to IVCN. Afterward, Hone should begin to gradually weaken as sea surface temperatures along the track begin to cool, and mid-level dry air becomes entrained into the cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 22.7N 176.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 23.7N 176.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 25.2N 177.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 25.9N 179.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 26.8N 179.9E 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 28.5N 179.7E 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 30.0N 179.4E 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 32.1N 177.8E 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 33.8N 176.5E 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster R Ballard